Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Djibouti
  • Egypt
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Tunisia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Cote d'Ivoire
  • Rwanda
  • Senegal
  • Mozambique

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $705,254$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{676,456.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 124.5)}}\) (asimptote \(676,456.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,492$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,065.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(18,065.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,505$ on 2020-10-19

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,800$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,874.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 192.2)}}\) (asimptote \(11,874.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $87$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 218.3)}}\) (asimptote \(177.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,093$ on 2020-10-19

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,949$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64,925.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 182.5)}}\) (asimptote \(64,925.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $732$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{969.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 176.7)}}\) (asimptote \(969.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,955$ on 2020-10-19

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $175,749$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{414,326.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 227.4)}}\) (asimptote \(414,326.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,976$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,922.7}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 211.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,922.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,352$ on 2020-10-19

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,469$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,340.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,340.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(59.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-10-19

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,547$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,943.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.5)}}\) (asimptote \(101,943.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,130$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,896.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,896.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,103$ on 2020-10-19

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,070$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,247.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,247.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.7)}}\) (asimptote \(85.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-10-19

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,727$ on 2020-10-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $687$ on 2020-10-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,008$ on 2020-10-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Cote d'Ivoire recovered 97%
Rwanda recovered 92%
Senegal recovered 72%
Mozambique recovered 37%

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,324$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,672.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.1)}}\) (asimptote \(19,672.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 82.1)}}\) (asimptote \(124.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $174$ on 2020-10-19

Rwanda⮸

Population $12,952,218$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,992$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,750.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 149.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,750.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(39.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $161$ on 2020-10-19

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,432$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,014.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,014.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $319$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(323.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,248$ on 2020-10-19

Mozambique⮸

Population $31,255,435$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,080$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,532.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 190.4)}}\) (asimptote \(24,532.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-10-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 149.3)}}\) (asimptote \(242.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,169$ on 2020-10-19